Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects

Abstract Observations indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-a fundamental component of ocean’s global conveyor belt-is weakening. Although causes remain uncertain, such weakening is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic emissions associated air pollution can impact Circulation. Here, we use four state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models to quantify how efforts improve future quality, via near-term climate forcer mitigation, will Future reductions in aerosols, ozone and precursor gases alone induces end-of-century Circulation by up 10%. However, when methane are included, this offset. The responses best explained changes North radiative forcing. Thus, quality must target other including carbon dioxide avoid world’s major ocean circulation system.